Low Transportation Emission Analysis and Projection Using LEAP : The Case of Qatar

The transportation sector has been identified as a substantial contributor to pollution and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, contributing to global warming. While there have been studies on the emissions produced by transportation in various regions, there is a lack of reported findings specifically pertaining to the Gulf region. This holds particularly true for road transportation, which stands as one of the foremost contributors to air pollution in Qatar. To fill this gap, this research offers a valuable resource as it is the first to estimate the current and forecast future transportation emissions by integrating real-world traffic count data into the Low Emissions Analysis Platform tool (LEAP), offering a novel application in the context of Qatar. Three scenarios were developed for different time frames: (1) the historical scenario for 2017-2021, (2) the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, and (3) the public transportation (PT) scenario, along with its sub-scenario: the PT fuel economy improvement scenario. The second and third scenarios are specifically designed for 2022-2050. The findings show that the GHG emissions in the historical scenario amounted to 732.31 thousand metric tonnes of carbon equivalent. However, the BAU scenario emissions, and the public transportation scenario emissions were estimated at around 26,410.53 and 23,548.90 thousand metric tonnes of carbon equivalent, respectively. In all of the scenarios considered, carbon dioxide emissions were the highest, followed by methane, and then nitrous oxide. Based on the proposed scenarios, emission reduction values were derived from LEAP. Subsequently, the Social Cost of Carbon Explorer tool was utilized to estimate the social cost of carbon (SCC) benefits resulting from the reduction of GHG emissions. According to the study findings, when comparing the public transportation scenario with the BAU scenario, it was estimated that the total SCC benefit in 2030, 2040, and 2050 would amount to USD 380,005,861.