Expanding Qatar’s Energy Sector Through Power-to-X Scenarios to Enhance Monetization, Decarbonization, and Sustainabilization Channels

This dissertation presents a comprehensive exploration of Qatar's efforts to expand its energy sector through innovative Power-to-X technologies, focusing on the transition towards sustainable energy solutions. Employing a multi-dimensional approach, the study integrates SWOT and PESTEL analyses to evaluate the internal and external factors influencing the development of Power-to-X pathways. The analysis highlights Qatar's robust infrastructure, renewable energy potential, and governmental support, aiming to achieve a 20% renewable energy share by 2030 and a 25% reduction in GHG emissions. However, challenges like substantial initial investments, technological readiness, and constrained water resources are identified as key barriers.

A detailed comparison of various fuels, including liquified natural gas, liquefied renewable methane (LRCH⁴), and liquefied hydrogen (LH₂) in their grey, blue, and green forms. A quantitative assessment evaluates the energy required to produce, store, and transport these fuels, incorporating scenarios of carbon capture as well as boil-off gas (BOG) recovery and utilization for enhanced value chain effectiveness. The results reveal that the energy consumed to produce LNG, LRCH⁴, and green LH₂ is approximately 0.49, 31.4, and 62.3 kWhe/kg of fuel, respectively. Additionally, storing LH₂ in a 2,000 m³ on-land storage tank for one day, while recovering 100% of the generated BOG, demands about 4,840 kWh. Complementing this, a qualitative assessment delves into four critical aspects: technology, infrastructure, scalability, and regulations. This analysis highlights that while the infrastructure and regulatory framework for LRCH⁴ as a fuel are well-established, the infrastructure for LH₂ is still in the nascent stages, with accompanying regulations requiring significant amendments. This comprehensive approach, integrating both quantitative and qualitative dimensions, offers deep insights into the comparative efficacy and readiness of these fuels, guiding strategic decisions in Qatar's pursuit of an optimized, sustainable, and future-ready energy sector.

The techno-economic analysis of a power-to-methane plant in Qatar not only offers insights into the economic potential and challenges of renewable methane production but also provides detailed financial metrics. With the levelized cost of production ranging from $1.75 to $2.90 per kilogram, the study underscores the significant investment and operational costs involved. The capital expenditure is primarily driven by the costs associated with the solar energy system, highlighting the substantial financial commitment required for renewable energy infrastructure. Operational expenditures, on the other hand, are heavily impacted by the cost of CO₂ capture and utilization, but the most substantial contribution to these expenses comes from the solar energy systems with batteries, accounting for about 55% of the total operational costs. A 20-year financial performance analysis paints a complex picture of the plant's viability. The sensitivity analysis is particularly revealing, indicating that the financial success of the plant hinges critically on the selling price of methane. The analysis shows that the Net Present Value (NPV) of the project turns positive and the Internal Rate of Return (IRR) surpasses the break-even point when the selling price exceeds $2.1 per kilogram. This finding highlights the precarious nature of the project's profitability, heavily reliant on market prices and the competitive landscape.

The life cycle assessment of power-to-methane processes, crucial for evaluating their environmental impacts, particularly highlights their global warming potential (GWP). The analysis revealed that power-to-methane using solar energy combined with CO₂ as a byproduct from ammonia production plant has a GWP of 0.529 kg CO₂ eq/Nm³. In contrast, when solar energy is paired with CO₂ captured through direct air capture (DAC), the GWP reduces to 0.424 kg CO₂ eq/Nm³. These figures underscore the significant influence of the CO₂ source on the process's overall environmental footprint. In comparison to traditional methane production methods, such as those utilizing natural gas (0.433 kg CO₂ eq/Nm³), power-to-methane pathways, especially those integrating solar power and DAC, emerge as more sustainable alternatives with lower global warming potential. This assessment underlines the potential environmental benefits of adopting renewable energy and advanced CO₂ capture techniques in methane production processes.

In light of the findings, the dissertation emphasizes the strategic pathways for Qatar to enhance monetization, decarbonization, and sustainabilization in its energy sector. It emphasizes the critical role of integrated and advanced energy solutions, such as Gas-to-X and Power-to-X technologies, in driving economic growth while reducing carbon footprints. The research advocates for the utilization of resource allocation, leveraging Qatar's existing energy infrastructure, and fostering international collaborations to expedite technological innovations. Emphasizing the importance of adaptive policy frameworks, the study calls for dynamic regulatory mechanisms to support the evolving landscape of sustainable energy technologies. By harnessing the synergies between diverse energy systems and prioritizing investments in emerging technologies, Qatar can significantly advance its goals of energy sector diversification, economic resilience, and environmental sustainability. This comprehensive approach will not only position Qatar as a leader in the global energy transition but also serve as a model for sustainable development in the energy sector worldwide.