Climate Change Impact on Building Cooling Requirements and the Associated Environmental Impacts

Due to the severe consequences and threats of climate change, several countries have committed to lowering their contribution to climate change by reducing their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this regard, the building sector has received much attention in the past decades, as it is responsible for a large percentage of GHG emissions globally. In contrast, the building cooling requirements would be significantly affected by climate change implications. Most studies have analyzed the impact of climate change on building energy requirements; however, the dual-impact relationship between climate change and building cooling requirements is not studied in detail. Therefore, the primary objective of this study was to investigate the dual-impact relationship for Qatar under two future scenarios. The first scenario considers that Qatar will still use natural gas as an energy source to produce power, and the second scenario assumes switching to solar power as a renewable energy source. Future climate data were obtained from a fine-resolution regional climate model for 2071 and 2100. Then energy analyses were conducted for eight prototype buildings under baseline and future climates. The associated environmental impacts were determined by conducting a Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). The findings revealed that the building cooling demand in Qatar could increase by 13-53% and 19-67% in the years 2071 and 2100, respectively.

Nevertheless, buildings with higher thermal insulation and lower window-to-wall ratio are less vulnerable to climate change than others. The outcomes of the LCA demonstrated that producing power using solar power could significantly reduce the contribution of buildings to climate change and ensure future energy security. However, the biggest concerns of switching to solar power are the risks of human toxicity and metal depletion associated with the used PV panels technology. This research underlined the necessity to consider possible climate change scenarios to develop more resilient buildings and encouraged investigating efficient recycling and waste management strategies before implementing PV panels.