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Using Unstated Cases to Correct for COVID-19 Pandemic Outbreak and Its Impact on Easing the Intervention for Qatar

journal contribution
submitted on 2024-05-07, 09:13 and posted on 2024-05-07, 09:14 authored by Narjiss Sallahi, Heesoo Park, Fedwa El Mellouhi, Mustapha Rachdi, Idir Ouassou, Samir Belhaouari, Abdelilah Arredouani, Halima Bensmail

Epidemiological Modeling supports the evaluation of various disease management activities. The value of epidemiological models lies in their ability to study various scenarios and to provide governments with a priori knowledge of the consequence of disease incursions and the impact of preventive strategies. A prevalent method of modeling the spread of pandemics is to categorize individuals in the population as belonging to one of several distinct compartments, which represents their health status with regard to the pandemic. In this work, a modified SIR epidemic model is proposed and analyzed with respect to the identification of its parameters and initial values based on stated or recorded case data from public health sources to estimate the unreported cases and the effectiveness of public health policies such as social distancing in slowing the spread of the epidemic. The analysis aims to highlight the importance of unreported cases for correcting the underestimated basic reproduction number. In many epidemic outbreaks, the number of reported infections is likely much lower than the actual number of infections which can be calculated from the model’s parameters derived from reported case data. The analysis is applied to the COVID-19 pandemic for several countries in the Gulf region and Europe.

Other Information

Published in: Biology
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
See article on publisher's website: https://dx.doi.org/10.3390/biology10060463

History

Language

  • English

Publisher

MDPI

Publication Year

  • 2021

License statement

This Item is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

Institution affiliated with

  • Hamad Bin Khalifa University
  • Qatar Computing Research Institute - HBKU
  • Qatar Environment and Energy Research Institute - HBKU
  • Qatar Biomedical Research Institute - HBKU
  • Diabetes Research Center - QBRI

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