Analyzing the Influence of Climate and Anthropogenic Development on Vegetation Cover in the Coastal Ecosystems of GCC

<p dir="ltr">The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries have experienced rapid coastal development over the past decades, significantly impacting their marine ecosystems. This study aimed to study the land use and land cover change for coastal vegetation in GCC countries from 2000 to 2023 using remote sensing and machine learning techniques, and to identify the impact of climate and anthropogenic factors on coastal vegetation cover of the GCC. We used Landsat satellite imagery and a Random Forest classification algorithm to map various land cover classes along the GCC coastline. Our results revealed significant changes in land cover, as seen by an increase in artificial built-up areas by 15.5% in two decades and a corresponding decrease in bareland and dense vegetation. We also observed an increase in mangrove and seagrass areas, likely due to recent conservation and afforestation efforts. The spatiotemporal analysis showed trends in land cover changes, with agricultural areas generally increasing (21.6%) and bareland steadily decreasing (− 21.2%). Dense vegetation declined by 35% from 2003 to 2023, while mangroves increased by 6%. A multiple linear regression analysis among the various climatic and anthropogenic factors showed that higher temperature positively affected mangroves and seagrass while having a negative relation to dense vegetation. Anthropogenic factors such as urban expansion and agricultural growth negatively impacted dense vegetation. Our findings underscore the need for integrated coastal management strategies balancing economic development with environmental conservation. Further research using higher resolution imagery and advanced classification techniques could improve accuracy and use of the results on a localized level. Our results also provide a baseline for future monitoring and management of coastal ecosystems in the GCC region.</p><h2>Other Information</h2><p dir="ltr">Published in: Earth Systems and Environment<br>License: <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0" target="_blank">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0</a><br>See article on publisher's website: <a href="https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00625-y" target="_blank">https://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s41748-025-00625-y</a></p>